(no subject)

[pecunium]

In other places there has been discussion of civil war, of what happens if the center cannot hold.

I have some ideas on this (I'm against it. I've made several speeches against it at Making Light One (buried in a long thread, and lots of the pieces worth reading; in this context for more of my thinking on the subject. It's in the interplay between myself and Lance) and Two which is a specific comment on lots of things, some of which are going on; still).

So, in the event that peaceful means can't correct the course of state, and some more drastic means is employed... how do you see the situation resolving itself?

What happens should the body politic reache the breaking point and chooses to excercise its right to "alter or abolish," the Nation as it is presently configured?

I'll give my ideas later, when the rest of you have chimed in.

Comments

It won't happen short term - long term Hobbesian state of nature

[(Anonymous)]

To answer the question as asked - in the event peaceful means can't correct the course of state - I don't see the situation resolving itself - rather I see mass movements of populations with death counts like Caesar and the Helveti - Somme - Nanking - pick your vision. Before that happens I'd forecast no more than Gunfight at the OK Corral (which was about political spoils if it was about anything) Harlan County, Pullman Strike - folks like Mitch Werbel or even Smedley Butler doing labor and community relations inside the United States but no resolution - none of the above led to a resolution either.

In fact the center cannot hold - it's old but Duncan Black did the best description of different preference patterns - as preferences look more like a saddle than a bell curve the center drops out. On the other hand Graydon and all the other naysayers are myopic. Bush will go willingly - the alternative is to be laughed at and ignored. Bush was elected on the premise that he's stupid but he'll take good advice. Bush is stupid but he didn't take good advice. Thing is the Swift Boat folks - most of them - were right about Kerry - he abandoned his command; a command he had volunteered for after failing to cover himself with glory on the Gilmore - then gave us his reporting for duty speech after shirking it. While I cheerfully acknowledge the current imperial presidency is an abomination I am reminded that it was Jeff Cooper, with all the political freight he carries, who did most to keep the name of Lon Horiuchi in the public's eye - silent leges is an old old story.

But unless we as a race make Arthur Clarke's ship=spaceship come true the water wars of the late 21st century will end civilization as we know it (see the current NYT on India; Darfur as much as anything is a water war) probably in a competent empire. Climate change won't help anything despite the remote possibility of a net gain in agricultural potential. Remember old folks -and they vote - will be dieing in Phoenix and the Luckiest Man in Denv will be reality.

Personally I've kept enough ammunition on hand for some time what I lack are such niceties as the Schmidt & Bender Short Dot (ACOG is too far and Aimpoint is too short ranging) night vision devices and other technology. Then again Popski started with a theodolite IIRC.
CEM

Re: It won't happen short term - long term Hobbesian state of nature

[antonia-tiger.livejournal.com]

There's something a bit unthinking about that last paragraph.

Not the possibility of needing plenty of ammunition, but the apparent reliance on high-tech accessories. If I were in a position to think of using that approach, I'd know I needed some spare pairs of spectacles before I spent a penny on the stuff that needs batteries.