The Mess in Israel

[pecunium]

I have some thoughts about Gaza, and the mess going on there for the past several years. Lots of people are using words like terrorism to describe the rocket attacks on Israel. Many of the people who so characterise them also say Israel is justified in “disproportionate response; which is in contravention of the laws of war, common sense, human decency and the biblical principal of equal justice (eye for an eye, and all that).

What lost in all this is the merits of the situation. Israel has been blockading Gaza. Blockade is an act of war. That’s why the Cuban Missile Crisis was as serious as it was. It wasn’t that Cuba was being used as a staging ground for threats against the US, but that by blockading Cuba we were committing an act of “hot” war, and Cuba’s ally, the Soviet Union, could have used that as casus belli for a declaration of war against us.

Israel, herself, believes blockade is a cause for just war:

Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser blockaded the Straits of Tiran on May 21st and 22nd to all shipping from and to Eilat; the area was open to Israeli ships under UN supervision since 1957, and Israel repeatedly stated that such a blockade will be considered as casus belli (justification for acts of war).

Israel included the right to make an actual attack on Egypt, in retaliation for the blockading of Eilat. In the early morning of June 5th 1967, the war broke out. Israel made a preemptive strike on the Egyptian Air Force.

Eilat isn’t all of Israel. There were open ports. The residents there could leave. they were free to travel outside of Israel. Egypt wasn’t blocking access to food, medicine, and freedom. Nonetheless Israel was of the opinion it was grounds for a Just War (the principle of jus ad bellum) it got international support for the war.

Which brings us to the present allegation of the rocket attacks being reason for the level of response Israel is making now. With jus ad bellum is twinned the idea of jus in bello, which is; to sum up, the idea of fair play.

Proportionality in war is part of the Hague and Geneva Conventions. Israel isn’t being proportional. I’ve hunkered down when people were lobbing things my way, trying to kill me, and the people I was with, it wasn’t like this:

A tower of white smoke rose from the northern Gaza town of Beit Hanoun after another Israeli bombardment Monday morning, and a half-dozen Israelis, perched on a dusty hilltop, gazed at the scene like armchair military strategists.

Avi Pilchick took a long swig of Pepsi and propped a foot on the plastic patio chair he'd carried up the hillside to watch the fighting. "They are doing good," Pilchick, 20, said of Israeli forces battling Palestinian militants in Gaza, "but they can do more."

Pilchick, and his compadres were on that hillside in Sderot on a sightseeing trip. They drove down from Jerusalem to watch the fireworks.

Why do they feel so comfortable heading down to treat it as a spectator event? Because in all of 2008, with hundred of rockets and mortars fired into Israel, a grand total of 81 people have been wounded, and 5 killed.

For the role of Irony in Everyday Life I particularly like this snippet: A cease fire was declared on 19 Jun. It was almost broken with a rocket attack on Israel, by an Israeli, who'd built a homade rocket with which he was trying to hit the Palestinian West Bank.

The first actual break occured on 24 June, when Isreal conducted an operation in Nablus.

On the 26th of June Hamas warned Israel that maintaining the blockade of the West Bank would cause a formal ending to the cease-fire.

All in all, Israel has been acting ham-handedly. They haven’t adhered to reasonable responses. They treat the Palestinians like red-headed stepchildren, and then wonder why the bad faith actions they take are greeted with something less than cheer and joy by those whom they are harming.

Are the Palestinians lily-white in this? No. But they are acting with far more restraint than the Israelis. The Palestinians have a case for their attacks. The Israelis don’t have justification for the level of response they’ve made.

Add the reports I saw on Monday, where Israel was spending it’s diplomatic efforts to keep any ceasefire from happening, so they could initiate the invasion they are undertaking now, and what reserves of trust and faith I have that the gov’t wants a peace, are getting harder to justify.

Comments

[seraphimsigrist.livejournal.com]

a problem with political issues
is that they can be set up in endless
ways like layer within layer of an onion...
as to blockade I suppose the premise is
that the hamas regime is an outlaw
one, rather like a somali pirate administration.
it is not legitimate.
now of course it can be said that since
metternich little is legitimate in government
but still... the argument needs to be taken into
account...
and in the end I expect one gives weight to that
which one is disposed to give weight to from
the beginning...

[katallen.livejournal.com]

How is it not legitimate?

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

Hamas, as an organisation, is somewhat like the IRA, and Sinn Fein. When elected Hamas position was that Israel was an illegitmate occupier of Palestinian land.

There are a lot of countries which don't recognise the Hamas led Gov't as the gov't of the PA (and so look to Fatah). If one accepts that line of reasoning, then they are not a legitimate gov't, and until the Palestinians elect a Gov't the Israelis like, they will be punished for electing "bad" gov'ts.

Since Hamas is where it is, in no small part because Israel wanted to use them as a counterfoil to the PLO, they aren't in the best place to say they aren't a legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.

When you consider the people in the Hamas Gov't say they are not the people lobbing rockets (which is why I chose the IRA Sinn Fein comparison) it gets even more complex.

The problem is... you don't get to say the people elected in another country aren't legit, not if you want them to treat with you. It's an unjustified interferencel; or it shows you aren't actually accepting the independence of the people who elected them.

There is no way, IMO, for peace to be arranged so long as Israel refuses to accept the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority. How the land is arranged is a difficult problem. I'd want to see Jordan and Syria give some land up, swap Gaza for that land (which has it's own problems, but the Danzig Corridor nature of the present situation is untenable, given the hostilities between the groups in question), and a cessation of settlement.

Barring that, ongoing things like rockets are likely to go on.

[seraphimsigrist.livejournal.com]

You know I sense you have an
orientation against Israel which perhaps
risks to cloud judgement and lead to saying
this will be and this and so on...but history
doesnt go like that...look at south africa
where all the think tank sort of people said
wellthe boers will circle the wagons and
it will be a blood bath and so on and yet it
wasnt...not at all... it is not a very good
society there now either but in different
ways from in the past and somehow outside
of all the apocalyptic expectations...
Perhaps in the middle east also a generation
or so more and things will change ...
or perhaps even ten years...things can
change in unexpected ways ...
not speaking very coherently but sort of
raising a question to your relentless logics.

[mihb.livejournal.com]

I agree that a huge mistake was made when much of the international community refused to recognize the government that the Palestinian people elected. The United States should never have pushed "Western" democracy in the first place. While Israel doesn't get to say that Hamas isn't legit, likewise Hamas doesn't get to say that Israel needs to be wiped off the map as they do in their charter. So we're at a standstill, as we have been and will continue to be.

What's going to be really interesting is seeing how the upcoming elections in Lebanon unfold. I won't be surprised if Hizbollah cleans house. Then it won't be just a nervous "Western" international community, but much of the Arab world as well. Hamas running Palestine and Hizbollah running Lebanon is more than a little frightening for Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, among others.

[katallen.livejournal.com]

Sorry, I shouldn't have intruded here, but I was curious as to what Seraphimsigrist meant by comparing the Palestinian Authority to a gang of Somalian pirates and was hoping his response might join some dots.

My opinion of the legitimacy of the palestinian Authority would appear to mirror your own.

[Though my concerns for the criminality of this phase of the war may well be outweighed by my concerns for the actions of the Israeli state towards Palestinian civilians during times of 'peace' or ceasefire. ]

[seraphimsigrist.livejournal.com]

dont you know the history?
it is a terrorist organization
(or if terrorist is a loaded word in
an unfair way say just an armed
organization)which ousted the
elected palestinian government
which now controls the left
bank. gaza is in the hands of
this group or gang.
now if someone wants to make a case
for this as being legitimate go to
it but at least be aware of the
problem.

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

But that same history can be attached to a lot of legitimate gov'ts.

Like the one founded by the Irgun. Or the Dail in Ireland.

Or the folks who raised a rebellion and engaged in various terrorisms in the British Colonies of N. America.

Hamas is in a a better place than all three. The latter two waged a rebellion (the second as part of a centuries old struggle against a foriegn occupier), and wrung acknowledgement by forse of arms.

Hamas was duly elected, by a people admitted to be independant. It's not legitimate to say, "you can't elect them, we don't approve".

[katallen.livejournal.com]

I may be oversimplifying this, but I believe Hamas was the majority elected to the government but the US encouraged a coup by the minority Fatah party. In the subsequent turmoil Hamas took total control of Gaza and Fatah retained dominance in the West Bank. The (Fatah) President declared the suspension of the Hamas dominated parliament and sacked the (Hamas) Prime Minister after which there were various tit-for-tat actions etc.

I don't know if you'll see this, but wonder if knowing they were the majority party in a fairly elected government -- so not a gang who seized power -- would change your view of Hamas's legitimacy?

[calimac.livejournal.com]

I would not describe Israel's actions as ham-handed so much as Bush-like, flailing around and stomping on things with complete disregard to whether it will accomplish the desired objectives or merely make them more difficult. "Ham-handed" falls in that category, but is not a strong enough term.

There is also the question, usually unraised with regard to Iraq also, that if the invasion is so "necessary" as its supporters claim, why exactly now? Why not earlier or later?

Having said that, I note a couple other things. First, regardless of whether the Eilat blockade was considered just cause by itself or not, Nasser's declared intentions to launch a war against Israel and wipe it out, and the massings of troops on the border, are relevant to that situation as well. Secondly, as far as justifications for blockades, there is also the question of who had been doing what to whom previously, a very murky subject.

Lastly, I think that if we're going to do quantitative analysis of casualties inflicted by each side on the other, the Israeli victims of suicide bombers ought to be brought into the equation, even if, with the sealing of the border, the bombers are fewer and/or less coming from Gaza than they were a year or two or several ago.

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

Even if we accept that calculation, the numbers are disprortionate; esp. if, as you say, the blockade has removed them from the level of serious threat.

Because in the past few days the Israelis admit to killing at least three times as many as have been injured in the past year.

So, on purely quantitative terms, Israel can't be said to acting proportionally. On a political level, this is more on the order of the Battle of Britain. There is no way for them to win, all they can do is hand a propaganda victory to the other side.

It's worse than a crime, it's a blunder.

[calimac.livejournal.com]

Indeed, as you say, including the full scale of Palestinian terrorism would not blunt the point that the current Israeli invasion is a disproportionate and unwise response to it. So why not include it?

It does make a big difference in one respect: Are we trying to paint the Israelis as inhuman monsters who can't shrug off a few nearly-harmless rockets between neighbors, or as a country that is responding to criminal provocation in what is itself a criminal, overheated, poorly-designed, and counter-productive manner?

The latter was the nature of the US attacks in Afghanistan and Iraq, and is it not necessary to diminish or justify 9/11 or the crimes of Saddam to say that the US response to these things is itself a crime, and not helping to solve the problem.

The same is true here.

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

Um... the blockade is an illegal response to the attacks. One, blockade is an act of war.

Two, the attacks in Israel don't justify blockade.

Three, until one addresses the illegality of the blockade, no one brings up the suicide bombers.

They are a distaction. Imputing that I am saying the Israeli gov't is run by inhuman monsters isn't something you can support from my post, nor my responses to it, so why bring it in?

As with the suicide bombers it's a disctration.

As to the nature of the responses... if you want to start going back to root causes (what with the, responding to criminal provocations), it goes back to why the suicide bombers are blowing themselves up.

Israel, as with any greater power, has the duty to keep itself in check. I've said before, a World Trade Center attack every year wouldn't justify what we've done to our core principles, or to Iraq. I have a very mixed opinion on Afghanistan. All things being equal, I think it was also an unjust war. The presence of the al Quaeda doesn't justify the reaction we made.

The level of response, year in, year out, to the rocket attacks has always been disproportionate. This incursion is just taking the previous style of over-reaction to a higher level. Which is diplomatically foolish, and morally reprehensible.

[robertainnc.livejournal.com]

You might enjoy this read, on Provocation and Proportion:
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12853965

Israel should not be surprised by the torrent of indignation it has aroused from around the world. This is not just because people seldom back the side with the F-16s. In general, a war must pass three tests to be justified. A country must first have exhausted all other means of defending itself. The attack should be proportionate to the objective. And it must stand a reasonable chance of achieving its goal. On all three of these tests Israel is on shakier ground than it cares to admit.

I appreciate reading your thoughts on this as well, thanks for taking the time to share them.

[chipuni.livejournal.com]

Thank you for a well-written, careful look at the start of this round of the Israeli-Palestinian war.

[cakmpls.livejournal.com]

Once again, thanks for an intelligent and helpful analysis.

[mihb.livejournal.com]

Nasser’s blockade of the Straits of Tiran was not the only reason for Israel’s attack in 1967. This was the time of secular Arab-Socialism wherein Arab leaders competed for the leadership of Arab Unity. One of the ways to prove this was through rhetorical and physical attacks on Israel. While Nasser’s actions in the Sinai can now been seen as one of a boy crying wolf, it was the Syrians who were most concerning. The price Nasser paid was the end of his credibility and the end of his vision of Arab Unity. Welcome to the second jahiliyya.

The events of the last 11 days should not be seen in a vacuum, and I’m not saying that you are, Terry. Some say Israel is attempting regime change in Gaza – believe me, they don’t want it. I think it has more to do with scratching itches. Someone mentioned earlier about the timing, why now? The elections are a good start. Olmert’s popularity is worse than the Shah’s before the Iranian Revolution, which is impressive. The people of southern Israel have been enduring Qassams consistently for the last 8 years, even during so-called truces, which are in reality, hudna (temporary truce). The purpose behind hudna is to reorganize and regroup so that when the cease-fire is over, one is prepared to finish the job. This comes from the Treaty of Hudnabiyya between Muhammad and the Quraysh tribe before Muhammad successfully took Mecca. That said, cease-fires and truces with Hamas are never truly peaceful since there is always the intention of eventually destroying Israel. The people of southern Israel have been demanding their government to respond to Hamas’ attacks and have all but lost faith in their government to care for and protect them. When Sharon dismantled the settlements in Gaza (something I firmly believe should be done in the West Bank as well), Hamas responded with daily rocket attacks. Hamas has been firing Qassams well before the blockade. Moreover, Gilad Shalit is still out there and I fear his fate is now sealed. I understand that damage is a large consideration in terms of proportionality, but I also find it interesting that the 8 years of Qassams falling on Israel even during so-called truces are not as important a consideration. This is not about one event vs. another event, it is more fluid than that.

I agree that the blockade of Gaza helped create the current situation, but I credit Hamas and even the United States with this mostly. What should have happened is that the United States should have bit the bullet and helped Hamas transition into an actual body of government the way we did when the PLO was transitioned from a terrorist organization to a political group. Yet, I would argue that Arafat remained a terrorist and created, funded and armed more than 40 Palestinian militias. So much for a partner for peace.

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

The idea of using a cease fire to regroup is not unique to Islam. There are examples of ruses like that in Kings. When it comes to crediting Hamas, recall that Israel propped them up, as a counterpoint to the PLO.

Nothing the PA (nor even the PLO, and it's parallels and offshoots) has done threatens Israel. That, more than anything else is the real problem. The rhetoric in the States is such that the bully pulpits are full of people like AIPAC, who have a vested interest in the conflict. Add the Dobsons and the Rick Warrens, who have their own reasons for wanting the Palestinians (and a slew of Syrians, Jordanians, Lebanese and Egyptians) pushed off the map and the US understanding of events is screwed.

Painful as it is to ponder, the best parallel I can see to Hamas, is the Irgun. Einstein, and others, who had been in Europe warned that Begin was a proto-facsist; a terrorist, who didn't represent a way to a stable Israel.

25 years ago I'd have said that was crazy-talk. Today...?

Yes, I think the election is why this is being done this way, and at this time. I think the Bush Administration (in order to bring about things religious fanatics in the US wanted) encouraged the present problems in Gaza. I think the catalyst for this breaking out now is the fear the Obama administration won't support Israel in the sort of hard line Netanyahu needs to be elected to replace Olmert (how he survived the fiasco that was the invasion of Lebabon baffles me), and so the last days of Bush are the only chance to take this sort of gamble.

But it can't end well. Barring some massive military win, and the subsequent displacing of the people living in Gaza (which would be a disaster, both on the ground, and in the halls of international relation) the gov't looks like idiots. Thuggish bullies, and foolish ones at that.

The issue of the rockets is a factor. But Israel has never dealt with them proportionally. Closing the borders, and allowing nothing more than food to go in, and nothing more than ad hoc determinations of humanitarian neccessity out is collective punishment.

Which is not only unlawful (per the 4th Geneva Convetions to which Israel is a signatory) but immoral. All stick and no carrot isn't diplomacy. If Israel want's to be seen as a grown up, entitled to a seat at the table of nations, it has to manage this sort of provocation.

They can't afford to hitch their star completely to ours.

[shunra.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure about 25 years ago, but when I said that ten years ago, I was told (quite frequently and vociferously) that I was crazy.

In fact, no matter *what* I say, I'm told that I'm crazy. I remember saying (30 years ago) that the only way to make peace was to talk with enemies. I got thrown out of the youth club I was in for that.

It makes me feel quite Cassandraish.

[shunra.livejournal.com]

In terms of Israel's political activity, I'd like to note that it's had three wars in the past eight years (I left Tel Aviv in March '01, so those are the three I "missed"): Intifada II, Lebanon '06 (Lebanon III), and Gaza '08 (Gaza The Next Generation).

There is something incredibly wrong about the diplomatic corps of a country that can't go three years without a war.

[mihb.livejournal.com]

I was in Tel Aviv for Lebanon '06 and left a few weeks after Goldwasser and Regev's bodies were returned (in exchange for that monster, I might add). The government seems to only be operating in terms of public opinion. The war with Hizbollah ended (to some prematurely, to others far too late) due to international opinion, and it can be argued that what is happening now is to regain trust and faith lost by its citizens. As it is, the government barely has control. I've never seen demonstrations and student strikes like I have in Tel Aviv, especially at the University.

[shunra.livejournal.com]

The "monster" is a human being. A POW. A POW who was very badly mistreated by Israel during the many years of his imprisonment.

Prison term for offenses? Yeah, that's fine. Torture as punishment or deterrent? Whoever has done that has left the line of civilized nations.

(I know the implications of this, and they HURT.)

The government can't have control, because Israel is composed of too many diverse groups, and many of these groups never intended to be there in the first place. Add to that a "new economy" modeled on Milton Friedman's ideals, grafted on top of a proto-socialist country and you get a right kerfuffle.

FWIW, Israel's political world is disintegrating into groups based on birth family rather than ideas: the orthodox parties, the Sephardic parties, the ultra-orthodox parties, the Russian parties, the Arab parties... ...how can you run a country when its body politic is BORN into its opinions rather than arriving at them by the process of considered thought?

I lived in Israel for 30 years. There were very many wars that I did not miss.

[ruthless1.livejournal.com]

Terry - I just want to say once again (I think I've said this before but maybe not?), I really appreciate your LJ. You are thoughtful and you gather some of the best information I've ever read on a wide range of topics. I never feel like you are biased either - you strike an interesting balance with things. And your readers are also quite thoughtful too. I just wanted to thank you for that.

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

Thanks. I don't know that it's all true (I do have biases... I just hope they aren't fatal). I am lucky in the readership, and that is the blessing of a few people (matociquala I am looking at you), who are fond enough of my stuff to have promoted it.

After that it's the slow snowball effect, which is how I come to all the stuff I tuck in here. If I have a strength it's tossing my analysis on top of other peoples showing me things. It's aggregation, more than it's original, or something.

I'm glad you like it.

[shunra.livejournal.com]

OK, it's gone and gotten worse.

Hizballah has sent three missiles into Israel. Israel sent five missiles into Lebanon. The order of events is not clear to me (it's basically happening right now), but it looks like that was the order of events.