How he plays the game
Sep. 30th, 2008 07:33 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
pecuniumSo last week, the financial crises lots of people have seen coming, finally broke. Bush has to be hating this (and his meeting with Yuschenko of Ukraine, well he looks worse than Nixon ever did Then again, he’s got a lower popularity than Nixon ever fell too. Mostly because the war everyone hates, is his war in a way that Viet-nam wasn’t Nixon’s, but I digress). Bush wanted this to be a Jackson/Van Buren, or Reagan/Bush sort of deal, i.e. he breaks it, and the next guy pays for. The timing couldn’t be worse for him.
It’s not good for the Republican Party either. It’s at about the perfect window to affect the election. It’s not far enough away that any attempt at a fix can have any effect. The fix being offered, isn’t going down well. Having this White House whip out a bill... well the odds of middle america trusting them, not so much (the various things which ought to have been big news; lies about WMD, the “rationale of the week” about why we actually went in [what with the lies about WMD being hard to keep going, some 5 years later, with not a tank of VX, or vial of anthrax to be found; much less the yellowcake Rice said proved Hussein was lying, because not an ounce of the mythical stuff was included on his declaration], the warrantless wiretapping, the outing of Valerie Plame, the US attorney firings, the no-bid contracts to campaign contributors, the refusal to answer subpoenas, hell, I’d go on, but I’m tired of typing, and y’all are probably tired of reading).
Enter John McCain.
His strategy seems to be, “look presidential”, which means his tactics ought to be playing to his strengths. He’s got them (or should). He’s been in the Senate a long time. He’s seen (right or wrong) as independent of the White House... a “maverick” who sees the things which ought to be done and pursues them.
That’s the meme his pushes, the story he’s been telling.
He decides to take a gamble. His VP isn’t bringing much to the table. She’s been caught out as clueless, and less than deft at hiding it. His judgement is being questioned. If the most experienced executive on any ticket is as piss-poor as she seems, uff-da. It’s changing the focus of things, the health records he managed to hide in plain sight are starting to gain traction (and there seems to be something in there he’s trying to hide. The whole gimmick of letting a bunch of reporters look at them for a few hours... that’s a scam. No way for them to scan them all for something dramatic, much less figure out if they’re complete).
So this mess comes along, and he decides to double the stakes. He’s going to save the day.
In a mad-fit of nobility he’s gonna suspend his campaign. He’s going to sacrifice his bid for president in the interest of the common good. His personal presence is so important he can’t attend the debate. He tried to deflect that by saying was more than willing to have 10 town halls; if Obama was willing to tag along with the McCain campaigns priorities.
Right, can’t take his chartered jet to Mississippi, because he has to be in Washington, saving the economy.
Obama doesn’t let him off the hook, and he caves in; attends the debate.
Strike one.
At the debate he looks petulant (or scared) and comes across as patronising and condescending. Oddly enough (as I scan the reactions) those who had already decided which way they were likely to go, tended to think it was a draw. The undecided, seem to have plumped more to Obama.
Strike two.
The compromise he worked to get hammered out... failed. The Republicans insisted the Dems take ownership of it and pretty much pass it all alone. His party... the one he’s going to be in charge of, should he win the election, couldn’t be arsed to fall in behind him.
Then he goes out to a press conference and, with the same sort of condescending arrogance, explains that he went and worked to get what he thought was best for the nation. Encouraged people to compromise, and come around to his vision, and they failed him.
He both assumed the mantle of the president, as if he were already in the office, and whined about it.
Strike three.
He’s already got a couple of strikes against him in the VP category. She’s got one more swing coming in the debate. Admittedly the expectations are low, but from what I’ve seen she’s going to have a hard time rising even to those. The real burden is going to be on Biden to avoid being too hard on her, lest she get sympathy for being abused.
I don’t see any good way for McCain, at this point, to turn the financial mess around. He’d have to come up with a bill that the people who innundated their reps with protests about the present steaming pile of dung will buy off on.
That would require starting from scratch, and including things (fixing the problem at the bottom; finding ways to prevent foreclosure, taking real stakes in the banks that fail [the swedish model], allowing shareholders to have a real say executive compensation, etc.) his party just won’t sign onto, and his campaign contributors would stop ponying up
So, is he gonna stick with this, and come back to the plate, late in the game (it may not be the ninth, but it’s sure as hell later than the 7th inning stretch) or try to find a new strategy?.
It’s not good for the Republican Party either. It’s at about the perfect window to affect the election. It’s not far enough away that any attempt at a fix can have any effect. The fix being offered, isn’t going down well. Having this White House whip out a bill... well the odds of middle america trusting them, not so much (the various things which ought to have been big news; lies about WMD, the “rationale of the week” about why we actually went in [what with the lies about WMD being hard to keep going, some 5 years later, with not a tank of VX, or vial of anthrax to be found; much less the yellowcake Rice said proved Hussein was lying, because not an ounce of the mythical stuff was included on his declaration], the warrantless wiretapping, the outing of Valerie Plame, the US attorney firings, the no-bid contracts to campaign contributors, the refusal to answer subpoenas, hell, I’d go on, but I’m tired of typing, and y’all are probably tired of reading).
Enter John McCain.
His strategy seems to be, “look presidential”, which means his tactics ought to be playing to his strengths. He’s got them (or should). He’s been in the Senate a long time. He’s seen (right or wrong) as independent of the White House... a “maverick” who sees the things which ought to be done and pursues them.
That’s the meme his pushes, the story he’s been telling.
He decides to take a gamble. His VP isn’t bringing much to the table. She’s been caught out as clueless, and less than deft at hiding it. His judgement is being questioned. If the most experienced executive on any ticket is as piss-poor as she seems, uff-da. It’s changing the focus of things, the health records he managed to hide in plain sight are starting to gain traction (and there seems to be something in there he’s trying to hide. The whole gimmick of letting a bunch of reporters look at them for a few hours... that’s a scam. No way for them to scan them all for something dramatic, much less figure out if they’re complete).
So this mess comes along, and he decides to double the stakes. He’s going to save the day.
In a mad-fit of nobility he’s gonna suspend his campaign. He’s going to sacrifice his bid for president in the interest of the common good. His personal presence is so important he can’t attend the debate. He tried to deflect that by saying was more than willing to have 10 town halls; if Obama was willing to tag along with the McCain campaigns priorities.
Right, can’t take his chartered jet to Mississippi, because he has to be in Washington, saving the economy.
Obama doesn’t let him off the hook, and he caves in; attends the debate.
Strike one.
At the debate he looks petulant (or scared) and comes across as patronising and condescending. Oddly enough (as I scan the reactions) those who had already decided which way they were likely to go, tended to think it was a draw. The undecided, seem to have plumped more to Obama.
Strike two.
The compromise he worked to get hammered out... failed. The Republicans insisted the Dems take ownership of it and pretty much pass it all alone. His party... the one he’s going to be in charge of, should he win the election, couldn’t be arsed to fall in behind him.
Then he goes out to a press conference and, with the same sort of condescending arrogance, explains that he went and worked to get what he thought was best for the nation. Encouraged people to compromise, and come around to his vision, and they failed him.
He both assumed the mantle of the president, as if he were already in the office, and whined about it.
Strike three.
He’s already got a couple of strikes against him in the VP category. She’s got one more swing coming in the debate. Admittedly the expectations are low, but from what I’ve seen she’s going to have a hard time rising even to those. The real burden is going to be on Biden to avoid being too hard on her, lest she get sympathy for being abused.
I don’t see any good way for McCain, at this point, to turn the financial mess around. He’d have to come up with a bill that the people who innundated their reps with protests about the present steaming pile of dung will buy off on.
That would require starting from scratch, and including things (fixing the problem at the bottom; finding ways to prevent foreclosure, taking real stakes in the banks that fail [the swedish model], allowing shareholders to have a real say executive compensation, etc.) his party just won’t sign onto, and his campaign contributors would stop ponying up
So, is he gonna stick with this, and come back to the plate, late in the game (it may not be the ninth, but it’s sure as hell later than the 7th inning stretch) or try to find a new strategy?.
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no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 06:15 am (UTC)IMO the only thing worse for McCain than keeping Palin would be getting rid of her.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 06:19 am (UTC)And yes, he's screwed with Palin. It seems she's costing him the votes of older jews.
Can you say Florida? Oddly enough he's also losing hispanic protestents.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 07:47 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 04:42 pm (UTC)It didn't work. People are paying attention, filtering out the noise and the spin, and saying ENOUGH.
It's about time. And now people are asking: Is there a crisis?
Interesting...
no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 11:04 am (UTC)At first, I thought it was kinda dopey, but now..I'm not so sure. I mean, if that were the case, you have to wonder why.
At least, I've been thinking that way. There is just something that feels really fucked up about all of this, to me, and then, well- the way he's doing things, combined with all the other weirdness going on, I don't know, to me, everything looks very..odd.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 11:48 am (UTC)Letterman basically spent a large portion of the show skewering McCain for "suspending" his campaign rather than throwing the ball to Palin - continually saying-but-not-quite-saying that if she's not ready to take on the campaign temporarily, she's damn well not ready to lead the nation if McCain pops his clogs.
Oh, and Olbermann was his guest (I believe as a fill-in for the missing McCain). So that was good....
no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 04:43 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 01:35 pm (UTC)McCain's campaign is not afraid to employ the most draconian of emotional manipulation--that shit at the debates about 'I'd just like to let everyone know my BFF Kennedy has been hospitalized --gosh, am I totally implying that Obama doesn't care somehow about Kennedy with my bringing this to everyone's attention?' was utterly ridiculous as well as 'suspending' his campaign. It just made him seem reactionary and spreading himself thin rather than heroic.
That said, I do feel like he might have been a fairly good president eight years ago, or even back in 96. But he's just too old, out of touch, and bitter now, and I feel there's too much at stake.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 08:56 pm (UTC)The line of attack is so open and so true--McCain thought we would be best served by Palin--and was wrong. How can you trust him with the country?
I think he has to hope that Palin expires, conveniently, which gets him a free do over on the VP pick and gets him the sympathy vote.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-02 11:57 am (UTC)See, that's what logic dictates, and that I want to trust to be right, but the world has long ago stopped making sense (a vice presidential candidate who believes in witchcraft and not evolution?) and the rules of politics just seem like guidelines or suggestions more than anything legally binding.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-01 10:13 pm (UTC)He might have some of the, "I was betrayed, and I want a woman" vote because of this. Some of the folks who aren't really comfortable voting for a black might be on board because they have a white woman on a ticket (so they can salve their egos with the idea that they are being progressive by voting for the ticket with the woman). Those voters will go to the Dems, if they see McCain acting even more cynically than he is now.
So he's stuck with her. Unless she implodes (and the campaign has been staving off the obvious implosions, so the Ethics invstigation in Alaska can't be used. Her daughter's pregnancy is off the table. The wedding is being touted as a plus to the campaign [somehow the impending nuptuals are seen as a big political statement... what that is, well I can't describe it without seeming crude, but what I see is the message that if your kid is involved in a pregnancy you force them to get married; I don't know this is the best value to be pushing, but that's me, and she's do not bringing me on board).
Nope, he's going to have to ride this one all the way down.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-02 12:02 pm (UTC)And like I replied up above, after this administration I would not be surprised by anything--if pictures come out of Palin clearly eating aborted fetuses it would be spun in some way that makes her seem sympathetic.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-02 04:50 pm (UTC)Very funny phrasing!
no subject
Date: 2008-10-02 03:20 am (UTC)She appeared on some news/talk program a few months ago complaining about Clinton giving the appearance of "whining." All the Obama/Biden campaign has to do is edit together that clip with any clips of the Republicans whining about Palin's treatment during the debate.