How to analyse OS Intel

[pecunium]

This relates to a conversation I was having with abi, over at Making Light about how to parse an intel-professional's comments (mostly it's not that hard, but it requires a certain type of painfully literal reading of what was left out, as well as what was left in).

All of that aside, the writer of Once Upon a Time has posted a piece on, How you too can, and should, be an intel-analyst.

He's right.

Comments

[jamie]

Thank you for both of those links. It reminded me of my own [redacted] past and how to analyze the information.

[waterlilly.livejournal.com]

Absolutely fascinating, and very informative. And two more blogs in my "list of people I read every day."

Thank you.

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

Making Light is well worth reading.

I've been hanging out with those people since abou '99, back when Usenet was all the rage.

Which were the fascinating bits?

TK

What fascinated me, in brief

[waterlilly.livejournal.com]

Well, for one thing, reading the Once Upon a Time article, I finally understood why I've been getting nowhere in most of the arguments I've had lately with people who still think this war is a good idea. (I live in Texas. The few people who still support Bush apparently all live here.) I knew logic didn't seem to be working, and they're still falling back on the "President knows best" arguments. Deconstructing that argument means I can have that discussion with them in a way that might help me explain what I think, and might get them, even against their wills, to think.

I've believed on a gut level for a long time that we don't seem to make war based on the intelligence, but other things. But I hadn't gone the rest of the way into thinking about how few wars in history (not just in my lifetime, and I'm old enough to remember Vietnam) had anything to do with logic or intelligence or necessity. It gave this non-history major something to think about.

I'm sure it's all obvious to people better versed in these things, but it made me re-think my assumptions, and that always changes my internal landscape a bit.

As for the Making Light link, I'll confess that I had a moment of fangirl "Holy crap, that's THE Steven Brust!" And then I actually realized whose blog it was, and that these people have edited a great many books that my husband and I both love. After I quit blinking and shut my gaping jaw, I actually read the comment thread more carefully.

I also appreciated your explanation of how classified material works for the people who work with it. I know people with clearances, but I've never asked about what they do because, well, I expect that they can't tell me.

And then there were the sonnets. And the sestina. :)

Re: What fascinated me, in brief

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

Ah, the joys of going "squee".

I have to confess that they are just folks to me, but part of that is having been in the fannish community for something like 30 years, and having a number of "famous" people as acquaintences and frieds, or at least FoF's, so that aspect of it is les (though I did go squee when Neil Gaiman said I'd done some evocative writing; which made some things much more clear to him... heady stuff that).

If you go to skzbrust you will be able to read his thoughts direct.

I don't recall a sestina, just a villanelle, but I'm getting old, and things slip from memory.

TK

Re: What fascinated me, in brief

[waterlilly.livejournal.com]

If Neil Gaiman said something like that to me, I think I'd pass out. Heady indeed.

I've met a couple of famous people, and I know people who know famous people, or at least authors I like. I even have a couple of authors I'm really fond of on my friends list. There's just always that initial moment of "Wow, you wrote this thing I thought was really wonderful, and, uhhh, hi..." I usually regain some intelligence after that. :)

I seem to recall a sestina, but I ended up staying up far too late looking at this, so my sleeping brain might have manufactured it. There was indeed a villanelle.

[feonixrift.livejournal.com]

*facepalm* I read that repeatedly as Intel as in microchips. My brain seems to have jammed up its context switch with gum again.

*adds to reading list*

[ckd]

You're not the only one. I saw "OS Intel" and thought "you're missing the X". (Reasonable mistake, since I'm typing this on a MacBook Pro.)

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I can see how that might happen.

To be (after the fact) clever, resolving that sort of thing is part of the job.

TK

[mayakda.livejournal.com]

It reminds me of what they teach newbies in sales -- the decision to buy is an emotional one.

[commodorified.livejournal.com]

I think what I got out of all that was "it is technically true, but not necessarily relevant to the matter at hand, that 'The IRGC IS engaged in terrorist[1] acitivity'."

[1] As defined by ... someone. Someone in the US government, one gathers.

I think I flunk at analysis, as this is not by itself useful.

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

There's some other stuff in there.

I gather that he does work, some of which the Gov't pays for. An important, if somewhat subtle, difference.

I also got (though not with as high a degree of reliability as I might like) the idea that the lack of relevance is such that the claims of the president that Iran is actively engaged in hostilities with us aren't supported by the verity of the terrorist activity of the IGRC.

As for flunking, it takes a long time to make an analyst. You just need practice.

TK

[commodorified.livejournal.com]

I gather that he does work, some of which the Gov't pays for. An important, if somewhat subtle, difference.

*nods* I don't think it's his definition, necessarily.

I also got (though not with as high a degree of reliability as I might like) the idea that the lack of relevance is such that the claims of the president that Iran is actively engaged in hostilities with us aren't supported by the verity of the terrorist activity of the IGRC.

*nods* See, that is the bit that makes it useful, and I got that that was maybe being waved at, but I couldn't pin it down.

Gah. Worse than syllogisms. (The icon is for life in general, not for you)