"Fibbers' forecasts are worthless. Case after miserable case after bloody case we went through, I tell you, all of which had this moral. Not only that people who want a project will tend to make innacurate projections about the possible outcomes of that project, but about the futility of attempts to 'shade' downward a fundamentally dishonest set of predictions. If you have doubts about the integrity of a forecaster, you can't use their forecasts at all. Not even as a 'starting point'."
I think this principle can be applied to the poll you cite. Look at the first paragraph:
"Right Wing News emailed more than 240 right-of-center bloggers and asked them to answer 8 questions. The following 63 blogs responded,..."
We don't know that the 63 respondents are a fair sample of the 240 who were polled, and we know that the right-wing blogosphere is not a fair sample of America. So I don't see how we can project from that poll and know how many readers take those blogs seriously, or how many Americans actually see "the Democrat party" as an Enemy Within that must be neutralized. We can't even use the poll as a starting point for an estimate.
We certainly know that there are some Americans who think that way, and some of them can be very very dangerous. But we didn't need a poll to tell us that; just ask anyone who worked in the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building--or any doctor who performs abortions.
My wife was on the Brandeis riflery team, and she says that after she is no longer nursing, she'd like to join a gun club and brush up on her skills. I'm hoping that I'll be able to take some classes, too...because we need a few more Democrats in this country who know how to handle firearms. :-/ (There's a T-shirt design in there somewhere...)
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Date: 2007-03-11 01:39 am (UTC)"Fibbers' forecasts are worthless. Case after miserable case after bloody case we went through, I tell you, all of which had this moral. Not only that people who want a project will tend to make innacurate projections about the possible outcomes of that project, but about the futility of attempts to 'shade' downward a fundamentally dishonest set of predictions. If you have doubts about the integrity of a forecaster, you can't use their forecasts at all. Not even as a 'starting point'."
I think this principle can be applied to the poll you cite. Look at the first paragraph:
"Right Wing News emailed more than 240 right-of-center bloggers and asked them to answer 8 questions. The following 63 blogs responded,..."
We don't know that the 63 respondents are a fair sample of the 240 who were polled, and we know that the right-wing blogosphere is not a fair sample of America. So I don't see how we can project from that poll and know how many readers take those blogs seriously, or how many Americans actually see "the Democrat party" as an Enemy Within that must be neutralized. We can't even use the poll as a starting point for an estimate.
We certainly know that there are some Americans who think that way, and some of them can be very very dangerous. But we didn't need a poll to tell us that; just ask anyone who worked in the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building--or any doctor who performs abortions.
My wife was on the Brandeis riflery team, and she says that after she is no longer nursing, she'd like to join a gun club and brush up on her skills. I'm hoping that I'll be able to take some classes, too...because we need a few more Democrats in this country who know how to handle firearms. :-/ (There's a T-shirt design in there somewhere...)