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So we caught him.
To be honest, I am both surprised, and not. Not so much that he was found (and not that he was under the noses of the 4th ID, nor yet that I was probably within a few hundred yards of him (if he was in that house the whole time) certainly not that I lived a few miles from that place.
No, I am surprised (and grateful) we caught him alive.
As a martyr, he was dangerous, and now his martyrdom is almost impossible (well, we could have a drumhead trial and them hang him, but that's about the only way he gets to be one from here).
But I don't think this will do us any good.
Those who were against us because they thought he might still be out there, and that he might come back to power, and then reward them... they will quit the fight (not all of them, but those who aren't 1: trying to become the next Hussein or 2: under the spell of someone who is trying to become the next Hussein).
On the other hand, we (as policy) have framed the struggle badly. It is painted as a fight between the isms of Democracy/Capital and Totalitarian gov't.
The problem is that the ism driving most of the resistance to our governance, is Nationalism, and removing Hussein from the picture is more of a detriment to us (in that regard) than he was at large.
Because those who were not being more vocal about wanting us to leave because they thought he might come back to power are no longer in fear of that. Which means they will agitate more for our departure.
I happen to think we will flub that (we have already arrested people for, "speaking out against the coalition." I don't know what the officer who said that meant; it might have been actionable, but I doubt it) and they will become radical, and we will not see any great diminuition in attacks, and then will see more of them (or there will be a reduction, for awhile, and then; when it is obvious we aren't leaving, they will come right back to the present levels).
It also means we have to decide what to do with him, which will raise the questions of WMD, and the justifications for the war (and who thinks Hussein is going to say, "I helped Al-Qaeda? Raise your hands.).
TK
To be honest, I am both surprised, and not. Not so much that he was found (and not that he was under the noses of the 4th ID, nor yet that I was probably within a few hundred yards of him (if he was in that house the whole time) certainly not that I lived a few miles from that place.
No, I am surprised (and grateful) we caught him alive.
As a martyr, he was dangerous, and now his martyrdom is almost impossible (well, we could have a drumhead trial and them hang him, but that's about the only way he gets to be one from here).
But I don't think this will do us any good.
Those who were against us because they thought he might still be out there, and that he might come back to power, and then reward them... they will quit the fight (not all of them, but those who aren't 1: trying to become the next Hussein or 2: under the spell of someone who is trying to become the next Hussein).
On the other hand, we (as policy) have framed the struggle badly. It is painted as a fight between the isms of Democracy/Capital and Totalitarian gov't.
The problem is that the ism driving most of the resistance to our governance, is Nationalism, and removing Hussein from the picture is more of a detriment to us (in that regard) than he was at large.
Because those who were not being more vocal about wanting us to leave because they thought he might come back to power are no longer in fear of that. Which means they will agitate more for our departure.
I happen to think we will flub that (we have already arrested people for, "speaking out against the coalition." I don't know what the officer who said that meant; it might have been actionable, but I doubt it) and they will become radical, and we will not see any great diminuition in attacks, and then will see more of them (or there will be a reduction, for awhile, and then; when it is obvious we aren't leaving, they will come right back to the present levels).
It also means we have to decide what to do with him, which will raise the questions of WMD, and the justifications for the war (and who thinks Hussein is going to say, "I helped Al-Qaeda? Raise your hands.).
TK
